The AirBnB IPO (Part II) - Expectations
Plus 1 Funding, 2 Pieces of News, 9 Articles to Read, a Video, and a Podcast.
As we wait for the upcoming IPO of AirBnB, I thought it might be good to set the stage with a few expectations. I would call them predictions if I had more conviction but I’m an extreme beginner in public equity markets, so consult your financial advisor for investment advice.
Some things I expect to see:
I agree with The Information’s analysis (below under News) that AirBnB should be valued by the market at more than $30B. The revenue multiples and metrics make sense and seem within the realm of reality.
They will execute a direct listing instead of the traditional (and more expensive) IPO path. That has implications on issuance of new shares and employee lock ups but should keep their fees down and get them in public investor portfolios quickly.
The stock, in the long run, will perform well. AirBnB has good margins, a great product, and name brand recognition globally. They have adjacent travel business lines to expand into in the future and are going public in a TERRIBLE hospitality/travel market. I’m probably a buyer. (Consult your financial advisor on this, btw. I am NOT one.)
This IPO will add credibility to the entire PropTech market. Kinda obvious, but it’s worth restating from last week.
Brian Chesky will not be the CEO in, let’s say, 3 years. Running a sexy, hyper-growth, vision-based tech startup is meaningfully different than an accountable-to-quarterly-analyst-calls public one. That’s not a criticism in any way. That would be 15 years of running an extremely successful startup and making lots of people around you very wealthy and happy. Well done. It’s just that there is a transition time for everyone and I don’t think Brian has or wants the same control that Zuck has kept on Facebook. It’s not about capability. It’s about appetite and the toll this type of rollercoaster takes on anyone. (Relatedly, Brian, if you want to talk about PropTech mentorship and investing, hit me up!)
I don’t expect a mass exodus after the IPO. From all accounts, AirBnB has been a great place to work. Sure, plenty of people get burned out after working at ANY place for so many years. When they are allowed to cash in on that equity and adjust to a slower pace post-IPO, plenty will. But I haven’t heard much about a toxic culture or anything else that would lead me to believe that every major executive has been looking for the door.
AirBnB will go public in October. The infamous employee stock grants expire in November and I hear there is some sort of election this November.
There you go. Just a few fun things to chew on and disagree with.
Have at it.
I may start putting some of this on Twitter as I wade back into that pond. So hit me up or follow me for more real time takes, info, or nonsense. @JustMattKnight
On to this week’s deals and data:
Fundings:
Skrap, a London based “construction hire” startup, raised about $1.6M led by Vanneck.
News:
Bentley is going public.
AirBnB’s IPO should clear $30B.
Articles:
Here is a quick roundup of a handful PropTech startups from Amsterdam.
Our friend Khushbu published an article on the convergence of Health, Wellness, and the Built Environment.
“COVID is not a threat to NYC’s high-paying jobs. But the internet is.” Dror is on his game.
Good to see a few PropTech names on this SPAC target list from The Information.
MIT has 4 Proptech trends.
Goodwin moves on to Industrial.
Propmodo has a good piece on microgrids.
Watch:
Blueprint has a video interview with Ben Pleat of Cobu.
Listen:
This week on Nexus, James has Brad Pilgrim of Parity talking about energy efficiency in apartments.
Unrelated but interesting:
In typical NfX fashion, they just bombarded me with content . . . but great content.
Thanks for reading!
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